Achieving Artificial Basic Intellect

Technological Singularity By Vernor Vinge

Dramatic changes in the rate of economic growth have occurred in the past because of technological advancement. Based on population growth, the economy doubled every 250,000 years from the Paleolithic era until the Neolithic Revolution. The new agricultural economy doubled every 900 years, a remarkable increase. In the current era, beginning with the Industrial Revolution, the world’s economic output doubles every fifteen years, sixty times faster than during the agricultural era. If the rise of superhuman intelligence causes a similar revolution, argues Robin Hanson, one would expect the economy to double at least quarterly and possibly on a weekly basis.

AI algorithms running on stable quantum computers have a chance to unlock singularity. Computer technology advances at a faster rate than many other technologies. This trend is related to Moore’s Law, which states that transistors double in power every 18 months.

Kurzweil’s reasoning rests on the Law of Accelerating Returns and its siblings, but these are not physical laws. They are assertions about how past rates of scientific and technical progress can predict the future rate. Therefore, like other attempts to forecast the future from the past, these “laws” will work until they don’t. More problematically for the singularity, these kinds of extrapolations derive much of their overall exponential shape from supposing that there will be a constant supply of increasingly more powerful computing capabilities.

According to Kurzweil, humans may then be fully replaced by AI, or by some hybrid of humans and machines. I have spent more than half my life building high end water-cooled computers. I share everything I know on myYouTube channel about building custom computers, water-cooling, modifications, over-clocking etc. The Protium D5 pump and reservoir combination has three parts, Reservoir, Pump Top and Pump Cover. To create a combo only two parts are actually needed, just the Protium D5 pump top and any Protium Reservoir .

Gordon Moore said in 2005 that we are approaching the fundamental limits to what we can achieve through building smaller transistors. Even if we find a way to build transistors on a scale of just a few nanometers, they wouldn’t necessarily work. That’s because as you approach this tiny scale you have to take quantum physics into account. Moore’s original observation was that the number of transistors on a square inch of an integrated circuit would double each year. Today, we say that the data density of an integrated circuit doubles every 18 months. Recent microprocessors from Intel and AMD have transistors that are 45-nanometers wide — a human hair can have a diameter of up to 180,000 nanometers.


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